*In parenthesis is the team's 2023 record
1. Houston (11-8)- (Sell) Under first year HC DeMeco Ryans the Texans were the NFL’s biggest surprise in 2023 increasing their win total by 7 games and reaching the Divisional Round of the Playoffs. The offense was led by Rookie of the Year CJ Stroud (4,108 yards, 23 TD’s) while on defense Will Anderson Jr. earned Rookie of the Year honors recording 7 sacks at DE. General Manager Nick Caserio stayed aggressive in the offseason bringing in both WR Stefon Diggs (Buffalo) and RB Joe Mixon (Cincinnati) via trade along with free agent signee Danielle Hunter (Minnesota) at DE. However, the defense is replacing 7 starters from last year including top pass rusher Jonathan Greenard (12.5 sacks) and on offense the O-line has question marks after finishing in the bottom third of the league in sacks allowed (47). The Texans benefitted from a favorable last place schedule in 2023 that featured only 4 opponents who reached the playoffs. They will face a much more challenging slate this time around that includes 5 division winners from last year. Add the weight of Super Bowl expectations and matching last season's 10 wins will be tougher than anticipated.
OVER/UNDER TOTAL WINS 9.5
2. Seattle (9-8)- (Sell) Despite a significant drop off in production from QB Geno Smith and having one of the league’s worst defenses the Seahawks found a way to win 9 games and narrowly miss a Wild Card berth last season. Pete Carroll, the franchise’s winningest coach, was unexpectedly fired after the season and replaced by former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. While Macdonald has had a successful track record both with the Ravens and in one season at the University of Michigan there is much work needed done to revitalize a defense that had fallen off drastically at the end of Carroll’s tenure. The unit will be without leading tackler (183) LB Bobby Wagner who signed with Washington after returning to Seattle for one season. The offense struggled to find production in the run game ranking 28th in yards per game and needs a bounce back season from Kenneth Walker III after a disappointing, injury riddled 2023. Carroll was the ultimate player’s coach and replacing him won’t be easy. If Macdonald, unproven as an NFL HC, is unable to gain the respect of the locker room this will be a rough debut season in the always tough NFC West.
OVER/UNDER TOTAL WINS 7.5
3. LA Chargers (5-12)- (Buy) The Chargers were one of the league’s biggest disappointments in 2023 finishing 5-12 after winning 10 games and reaching the playoffs the year before. QB Justin Herbert was limited to just 13 games due to multiple hand injuries and HC Brandon Staley was fired following an embarrassing 63-21 loss to the Raiders on December 14th. Jim Harbaugh, who posted a 44-19 record including 3 NFC Championships and 1 Super Bowl appearance in 4 seasons with the 49ers from 2011-14, vows to bring a tough, physical rushing attack to compliment Herbert’s elite passing skills. LB Khalil Mack is coming off a career high 17 sacks and if injury-prone teammate Joey Bosa can stay healthy the pass rush should be amongst the NFL’s best. Kicker Cameron Dicker carries a career field goal percentage of 94.5 converting 31 of 33 attempts last year including 7 out of 9 from 50-plus yards. 7 out of the first 10 games on the schedule are against non-playoff teams from 2023 and if the Chargers can improve on last year’s 0-7 mark in games decided by 3 points or less doubling last year’s 5 wins is well within reach.
OVER/UNDER TOTAL WINS 8.5
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