Predicted Order of Finish
*2023 Record in Parenthesis
*Rosters are Subject to Change
1. Utah (8-5)
Good News- the return of senior QB Cameron Rising (missed 2023 recovering from torn ACL) along with 7 starters from last year’s top 15 defense give the Utes Big 12 title aspirations
Bad News- if Rising can't stay healthy there aren't many viable options to replace him
OVER/UNDER TOTAL WINS 9.5
2. Kansas St. (9-4)
Good News- sophomore QB Avery Johnson shined as a freshman and junior RB DJ Giddens returns in the backfield following a 1,226-yard, 10 TD season
Bad News- the Wildcats' O-line will be breaking in 3 new starters which could be a concern for HC Chris Klieman’s run-oriented offense
OVER/UNDER TOTAL WINS 9.5
3. Iowa St. (7-6)
Good News- reigning Big 12 Freshman of the Year QB Rocco Becht returns to lead the offense and 9 starters are back from last year’s stout defense
Bad News- the Cyclones have struggled to find production in the run game following Breece Hall’s departure to the NFL in 2021
OVER/UNDER TOTAL WINS 7.5
4. Oklahoma St. (10-4)
Good News- 18 starters are back from last year’s team that closed the season winning 8 of its’ final 10
Bad News- the Cowboys can’t afford another slow start with matchups against 2-time FCS Champion South Dakota State as well as Big 12 contenders Utah and Kansas State in the first 5 weeks
OVER/UNDER TOTAL WINS 8.5
5. Arizona (10-3)
Good News- new HC Brent Brennan, who took San Jose State to 3 bowls in the past 4 seasons, retained both sophomore QB Noah Fifita (25 TD’s) along with his top target in junior WR Tetairoa McMillan
Bad News- the new staff will be tested early with September road games against Kansas State and Utah
OVER/UNDER TOTAL WINS 7.5
6. Kansas (9-4)
Good News- junior QB Jaylen Daniels returns after missing 9 games due to a back injury and the conference slate is much more manageable (sans Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas)
Bad News- when healthy Daniels has been sensational, but he has yet to play a full season since arriving at Kansas in 2020
OVER/UNDER TOTAL WINS 8.5
7. TCU (5-7)
Good News- the Horned Frogs return top 2 WR’s from 2023 and new defensive coordinator Andy Avalos seeks to revamp last year’s unit that ranked 100th in yards allowed (408.3)
Bad News- returning sophomore QB Josh Hoover is still relatively inexperienced and the O-line will be relying heavily on transfers
OVER/UNDER TOTAL WINS 7.5
8. West Virginia (9-4)
Good News- the one-two-punch of junior CJ Donaldson and sophomore Jahiem White, who combined for 1,540 yards and 15 TD’s, return behind an experienced O-line
Bad News- the defense enters 2024 with questions at both linebacker and in the secondary
OVER/UNDER TOTAL WINS 6.5
9. Texas Tech (7-6)
Good News- the Red Raiders return junior starting QB Behren Morton (15 TD’s in 10 games) along with 1,500-yard rusher in senior RB Tahj Brooks
Bad News- both the offensive and defensive lines will feature plenty of new faces in 2024
OVER/UNDER TOTAL WINS 7.5
10. UCF (6-7)
Good News- senior transfer QB KJ Jefferson (Arkansas) is surrounded by a bevy of talented playmakers at both RB and WR
Bad News- the Knights’ defense was gashed for 194.3 rush yards per game and junior kicker Colton Boomer converted only 13 of 21 field goal attempts
OVER/UNDER TOTAL WINS 7.5
11. Colorado (4-8)
Good News- senior QB Shedeur Sanders threw for over 3,200 yards and 27 TD’s and dynamic two-way player junior WR/CB Travis Hunter (5 TD’s, 3 INT’s) will again be a force on both sides of the ball
Bad News- the Buffaloes were a disaster on defense in 2023 ranking outside the top 120 in points and yards allowed
OVER/UNDER TOTAL WINS 5.5
12. Cincinnati (3-9)
Good News- the nation’s 5th best rushing attack in 2023 returns its’ top back in senior Corey Kiner as well as all 5 starters on the O-line
Bad News- the Bearcats defense, which allowed 30 points or more 7 times last year, turns to new coordinator Tyson Veidt for answers
OVER/UNDER TOTAL WINS 5
13. Baylor (3-9)
Good News- a change in coordinator (Jake Spavital) and quarterback (Dequan Finn) gives the Bears' toothless offense in 2023 (23.1 ppg) reasons for optimism
Bad News- HC Dave Aranda enters 2024 carry a 23-25 record in 4 seasons at Waco including 5 straight losses to end last year
OVER/UNDER TOTAL WINS 5.5
14. Arizona St. (3-9)
Good News- returning senior DE Prince Dorbah led the team in sacks (6) and tackles for loss (9.5) last season
Bad News- top receiver Elijah Badger (65 receptions, 713 yards) transferred in the spring and presumed starting transfer QB Sam Leavitt (Michigan State) is unproven
OVER/UNDER TOTAL WINS 4.5
15. BYU (5-7)
Good News- the offense returns leading junior WR Chase Roberts along with 3 starters from a stout O-line
Bad News- the defense struggled to adapt to Big 12 opposition getting torched for 417.7 yards per game and surrendering at least 35 points in 5 of the final 7 games
OVER/UNDER TOTAL WINS 4.5
16. Houston (4-8)
Good News- new HC Willie Fritz (208 career wins) has won at every level of collegiate football and will have an experienced QB in senior Donovan Smith to work with
Bad News- massive roster turnover on both sides of the ball will keep the Cougars from moving up the conference standings
OVER/UNDER TOTAL WINS 3.5
Buy
TCU (Big 12)- As long as Sonny Dykes is the HC the offense won’t be an issue. If new defensive coordinator Andy Avalos, who had successful stints at both Boise State and Oregon, can tighten the screws on a defense the Horned Frogs could be a surprise Big 12 title contender in 2024.
Sell
None
2023 FBS Statistical Rankings
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