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1. Oklahoma- (OVERVALUED) The Sooners notched impressive wins over Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan in the non-conference. However, they finished 6 games under 500 in SEC play thanks in large part to poor defensive play (267th in points allowed per game) and getting crushed on the glass (289th in rebound margin). Add in a ranking outside of the top 190 in turnovers per possession on offense and that should equal an early exit from this year’s tournament.
2. Gonzaga- (UNDERVALUED) The Zags, led by veteran HC Mark Few, enter this year’s tournament uncharacteristically under the radar as an 8 seed. However, 3 of their 8 losses came in overtime and their largest defeat in regulation was 7 against WCC Champion Saint Mary’s. Led by senior G Ryan Nembhard (9.8 assists per game) this a dangerous team with a Final Four ceiling if they can put everything together.
3. St. John’s- (OVERVALUED) 2nd year HC Rick Pitino guided the Red Storm to 30 wins and their first Big East Tournament Championship in 25 years. While this is a team that is dominant on the defensive end of the floor their inability to shoot from both the field (268th in effective FG%) and at the free throw line (290th in FT%) will likely thwart a deep run in the tournament.
4. Oregon- (UNDERVALUED) The Ducks, led by 15-year HC Dana Altman, put together quite an impressive debut season in the Big Ten finishing with 24 wins that included 16 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents. Led by 7 senior C Nate Bittle (14.1 Pts, 7.4 Reb) this team lacks a glaring weakness at either end of the floor and is more than capable of reaching the Sweet 16 and beyond.
5. UConn- (UNDERVALUED) Few if any believe the Huskies are capable of winning a third consecutive NCAA Championship. On the bright side you can argue this team has yet to play to its’ full potential despite winning 6 out of their last 8 games entering tournament play. They are amongst the nation’s best in offensive efficiency while ranking in the top 20 in rebound margin and if anyone can pull off a miraculous run to San Antonio Danny Hurley is the coach to do it.
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